Poker Variance

Out for the third time today, on the same site, to inferior hole cards. A good job I had already blown my bankroll, or I would have surely gone on a tilt. Losing to pocket 2's, and AJ twice with my AK suited was very demoralizing, especially when I was playing well, and in position too. Is this what is known as Variance?....

Poker Variance

Poker is a game of skill with a chance element brought about by the random shuffle and distribution of cards. Variance in poker gaming describes the effect of that chance element in the short-term. While variance in poker is in many ways the enemy of the skilled poker player, having an understanding of this and ensuring that you get the chips in when you have the ‘best of it’ will bring you poker profits in the long-term. 

The nature of poker variance can be demonstrated with an example. You are playing in a poker tournament at one of the excellent poker sites . You are dealt Ace-King and after a raising war pre-flop manage to get all-in against an opponent holding Ace-Jack. 

This is a great result, you have your chips in the middle as a solid 70% favorite. It also means that 3 out of every 10 times you play the hand you will be out of the tournament! 

In this example you survive the hand and later in the same tournament get all-in again with a pair of queens against tens. Here you are 80% favorite. Later still you have Ace-king and again get in as a 70% favorite against a lower ace. Your poker skills have enabled you to get in with the best hand 3 times! 

Here is where an understanding of variance can help your game. You are actually now less than even-money to be still in the poker tournament. This is how the numbers look: - 

- First Hand: 70% of the time you win and are still in the game. 

- Second Hand: 80% of 70% you win and are still in the game (56%) 

- Third Hand: 70% of 56% you win are still in the game (39.2%) 

So even though you got your chips in as a solid favorite each hand played, you are now out of the tournament more than 60% of the time. 

Understanding this can help your online poker game in several ways. Firstly it can stop you feeling like you suffered a ‘bad-beat’ and subsequently going on tilt. Secondly it could make you more inclined to play more pots where you are not risking all of your chips in one go. Thirdly it should emphasize the need for solid bankroll management skills whichever game and level at which you play. 

The skill element in any poker game needs time to manifest itself. Getting your chips in with the best hand will show a profit as long as your online poker bankroll is big enough to withstand the natural variance (or swings) in the game. 

There will always be a debate about what percentage of the poker game comes down to skill and what percentage can be attributed to luck. When looking at the effect of variance in online poker it is more useful to look at this with the effect of time included. 

1 Poker Hand – Chance predominates 

100 Poker Hands – Skill begins to have an influence 

1000 Poker Hands – Skill now the single biggest factor 

10000 Poker Hands – The effect of chance now minimal 

100,000 Poker Hands – The effect of chance now all but gone. 

 Variance in poker will always have an effect in your game. Understanding how this influences play and the fact that skill is the most important factor over time will help you to make your poker games more profitable.  

So I have not quit the game...just yet... see you all soon on a site near you.

Jigzee

This is the latest thing 'doing the rounds' in the 'pokersphere' it's the first episode of an animated series created by Jay "Krantz" Rosenkrantz and John "Jimmylegs" Wray. Thanks for the "heads up" Poker Babe...

A Kid's Game: The Story of online Poker

Poker Superstars Season 1 Ep.1 1/3

This is how the game should be played. Note playing out of position, and defending blinds. Some great examples, and the commentary is excellent.

Drawing Dead (Poker Documentary)

A short documentary film exploring the world of online poker from two very different perspectives: an online pro worth millions, and a college dropout who almost gambled away his life. Go to Facebook.com/DrawingDeadPokerDoc to learn about the full length version coming out in 2012!

Poker Babe - Erica

Erica Schoenberg is one of the known poker hotties going today. Ms. Schoenberg is a former model and a former professional volleyball player, so she's got looks and athleticism. On top of those two professions, the player some know as the Poker Babe or Blackjack Babe has also made money as a personal trainer. Erica Schoenberg has even showed versatility in the gambling world, since she is also a professional blackjack player.

Poker babe - Kelly Hu

Kelly Ann Hu is an American actress and former fashion model who held the Miss Teen USA 1985 and Miss Hawaii USA 1993 titles. When it comes to poker hotties, it doesn’t get any better than Kelly Hu‘s Chinese, Hawaiian, English and Filipino features. She has also starred in such films as X2, Cradle 2 the Grave and The Scorpion King. Hu, a member of CAUSE USA, an organization which encourages Asian Americans to participate in the democratic process, was instrumental in creating the innovative PSA The Least Likely. This clip purports to be a promo for a typical fantasy-adventure movie, only to reveal its message at the end. It aired on MTV and other networks with appeal to young people and Asian Americans. Kelly Hu is an avid fan of poker and a dedicated poker player, and has frequently taken part in World Series of Poker and World Poker Tour competitions (amongst others), most recently taking part in the WPT Celebrity Charity on March 3, 2008. She has taken part in HollywoodPoker.com's "Celebrity Poker Night" (May 30, 2006), and in July 2006 she placed in the top 200 in the World Series of Poker Ladies Tournament, besting nearly a thousand other competitors. Her celebrity teammates included Mimi Rogers, Victoria Pratt, Anne Heche, Mena Suvari, Jean Smart, and Ricki Lake. Kelly currently lives alone in Brentwood, Los Angeles, and she has never been married. Hard to believe, given the good looks and talent of this poker hottie.

Poker Babe - Brandi Williams

Brandi Williams is a well-known in the poker community as the sexy poker host of the hit series Ultimate Poker Challenge. Even though she shares co-hosting duties, it is apparent that the camera loves her, as she seems to get more air-time than anyone else. Brandi Williams grew up in Perryopolis, Pennsylvania and after a stint as a cheerleader for the Arizona Cardinals she moved to Las Vegas in her early twenties. She has worked in television alongside noted personalities Ryan Seacrest, Alan Thicke, and Donny Osmond. Her credits include appearances on Entertainment Tonight, E! Entertainment network, acting as hostess for NYE Live on MSNBC, and for two years acted as a reporter for the morning news show on the station KTLA. She also signed a deal to be the host on LiveVideo.com. Brandi Williams has been dubbed "The Queen of Hearts" and "The Princess of Poker" by numerous popular gambling magazines. Brandi Williams got her boost of fame from the series Ultimate Poker Challenge. When the show premiered, it quickly became a hit and eventually went on to become one of the largest poker shows in syndication. The premise of the show is that each week represents a tournament with the players competing for a seat in the semi-finals. The players can qualify based on their points leader board for their finishing positions. In the show, Brandi acts as co-host with actor Chad Brown. Brandi Williams provides player interviews and into and out-of commercial breaks. The show has featured big poker names such as Chris Ferguson, Jennifer Harman, and Phil Laak. After four seasons, the show has been a viewer favorite in the ratings.

Poker Babe - Mena Suvari

Mena Suvari is just fantastic. She's the right blend of girlish charm and attitude - and has the smarts to be a great poker player. Unfortunately, she wasn't too hot at the game (at least not yet).Her poker playing skills were a little less than stellar, but as a person Mena was terrific. The only weird thing was that when she tried to chat with the other poker players they were either too starstruck or to in love with her to answer her. Although she only started playing poker last year, she's a quick study. Learning first to play Texas Hold'em, then moving on the Seven Card Stud. And avid fan of the game, Suvari states that she tries to play as much as she can. She used her petite good looks to her best advantage, probing herself to be extremely knowledgeable and a fierce competitor. By the end of the game she ended up with the win, snagging $10,000 for the Starlight Children's Foundation. Mena Suvari's big break into movies came when she appeared as Heather in the hugely popular "American Pie" movies alongside Shannon Elizabeth, Tara Reid and Seann William Scott. However, she is almost assuredly best known for her breakout performance in the Academy Award winning American Beauty, where she stunned the world. Mena started in commercials at the age of 12, and segued into a brief modeling career before coming to Hollywood.

Strip Poker Invitational

Gang Bang Poker FacePoker

gobshite on legs

I found this gem and had to publish it, hope gobshite won't mind...she looks tasty...in every way!!! gobshite on legs

Poker Babe Shana Hiatt

Shana Hiatt a poker hottie who hosted the first three seasons of the World Poker Tour. Because of her beauty and attractiveness, she made a very a big role on the success of the World Poker Tour. But its not just the pretty face and a great figure that made her so successful, she also did a great job on making poker players comfortable. After the first successful season of the WPT, a new opportunity is presented to Shana, and the announcement is made in November 2003 that Shana Hiatt has been named the official spokesperson for PartyPoker.com. Shana's poker hosting does not end there, she also hosts a weekly high-stakes celebrity poker match at the prestigious Beverly Hills club, the Grand Havana Room.

A conversation between a poker player and a non poker player - some bad language

Day one - Welcome to Poker Mates

I will be looking at the world of online poker, playing and commenting on my experiences. Hopefully finding some new friends, and picking up tips along the way. I already play on a number of sites, with varying degrees of success.
I am not going to kick off by knocking anyone as that could be counter productive, but suffice it to say, some are more player friendly than others, and I do tend towards those. As with anything in life, to get good, you have to put in the hours of practice, and I have been doing just that.
Later, after I have had a chance to speak to the relevant sites, I will list all the ones I play on, and give my feedback on them.
I have not created an "add friend" post yet, that will be done pronto, but please leave me a message to say you have been here. Keep them clean please....lol...
Ok, back to creating  the page, talk soon, and welcome to you.

JigzeeKat